The power battery is the "heart" and "soul" of new energy vehicles, and it is also the link with the highest added value in the new energy vehicle industry chain, ranking first among the three key core technologies for the development of new energy vehicles. The development of the power battery industry and the breakthrough of key core technologies are important ways to break the power bottleneck of new energy vehicles. In recent years, my country's power battery industry has developed strongly. In 2017, its shipments reached 44.5GWh, a year-on-year growth rate of 44%, accounting for more than 70% of the global market share, and its industrial scale ranks first in the world. However, at the same time of rapid development, prominent problems such as sharp drop in corporate profits, lack of core technology, and overcapacity have also emerged, which deserve great attention.
Industrial development faces three major problems
(1) The profits of power battery companies have decreased significantly, and the industry reshuffle has continued to intensify
Relevant data show that in 2017, the overall operating income of my country's new energy automobile industry increased by 13.2%, which was about 4.6% lower than last year; the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 7.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was about 20% lower than last year; It fell 1.4% year-on-year. From the perspective of leading companies in the power battery industry, in 2017, BYD's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 4.066 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 19.51%. In addition, from January to March 2018, BYD's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies fell sharply by 83.09%. Another company, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, had a net profit of 920 million yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2017, a year-on-year decrease of 10.73%. In addition, the reshuffle of the power battery industry has been accelerating recently, and a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises have been eliminated. In 2015, there were 150 power battery-related companies nationwide, but by the end of 2017, the number had dropped to about 100, and 1/3 of the companies were eliminated. However, the reshuffle of the power battery industry has just begun. It is estimated that by 2020, 90% of the companies in the market will be eliminated.
2) Multinational companies form patent control over my country's power battery industry technology
According to the International Patent Classification (IPC), at present, the top 10 companies in the global power battery industry are monopolized by Japan, the United States, South Korea, Germany and other countries, and the total number of patents of these companies is 3,278. Among them, there are 5 Japanese companies, accounting for 50% of the total, 66.36% of the patents, 38.71% of the patents of Toyota, and 2 American and Korean companies, each accounting for 20% of the total. The number of patents accounted for 16.44% and 9.23% respectively; only one German company, Bosch, was shortlisted in the top 10, accounting for 10% of the total, and the number of patents accounted for 7.97%. No Chinese company is shortlisted in the top 10, which shows that in terms of the number of patents in the power battery industry, there is a significant gap between Chinese companies and developed countries. The market competitiveness of related power battery companies is relatively weak, and the patent barriers for the development of my country's power battery industry have not yet been formed.Please check:https://www.aimeno.com/lithium-battery/213.html
(3) The power battery industry faces overcapacity
In recent years, the rapid growth of production and sales of new energy vehicles has stimulated the development of the power battery industry. From 2014 to 2016, the average annual growth rate of the domestic power battery industry was as high as 368%, 324% and 78.6% respectively. According to statistics, China's power battery output in 2017 was 44.5GWh, which was 8.1GWh higher than the total installed capacity in the same year. The overall inventory accounted for about 18.2% of the total output, and the national power battery capacity utilization rate was only 40%. It is also estimated that in 2016, if all the existing domestic production capacity is released, a huge production capacity of 170Gwh/year will be formed, which is about 7 times the actual market demand in that year, and can meet the annual production of 5 million electric passenger vehicles and 500,000 electric vehicles. The total demand for electric buses; according to relevant plans, my country will not be able to reach such a huge market demand by 2025. In 2017, my country's power battery production capacity continued to grow, and has now exceeded 200Gwh/year. Although the current production capacity of power batteries is huge, there are still flaws of "low technical level". The structural overcapacity of "excess low-end products and insufficient high-end products" is still a prominent problem that plagues the development of the domestic power battery industry.
Analysis of the three short boards
(1) The two-way attack from the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain has led to a sharp drop in the profits of power battery manufacturers
From the perspective of the upstream, driven by the rapid development of the new energy industry recently, the prices of upstream raw materials have risen. In 2017, the annual price of lithium carbonate rose from 130,000 yuan/ton to 170,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 35%. The price of electrolytic cobalt also rose from 300,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2017 to 440,000 yuan/ton at the end of the year, close to a record high in seven years. From the downstream perspective, since 2017, new energy vehicles have gradually started the subsidy reduction mechanism, and the overall subsidy is expected to be reduced by 40%. Affected by the sudden reduction in subsidies, many vehicle manufacturers are facing financial pressure. While significantly reducing the price of power batteries, they have also continued to "extend the payment period and default on payment", directly passing the cost pressure to the upstream power battery manufacturers. In general, due to the combined effect of the above factors, the profits of a large number of power battery companies have plummeted, and many small and medium-sized power battery manufacturers have declared bankruptcy due to rupture, and the industry reshuffle has continued to intensify.
(2) The R&D strength of enterprises is weak, leading to the lack of core technologies and patents in the industry
In fact, power batteries are capital and technology-intensive industries. At present, the overall research and development strength of domestic power battery-related enterprises is weak, lacking core technologies and patents with significant industrial influence, and there is still a large gap with enterprises in developed countries in terms of high-tech and advanced technologies.
(3) The rapid expansion of the production capacity of new energy vehicles has led to the accumulation of excess capacity in the power battery industry
The development of the new energy automobile industry has the characteristics of large market potential, high government subsidies, and rich profits. In recent years, it has attracted a large amount of capital investment, which has promoted the new energy automobile industry to show an astonishing development speed in a short period of time. According to the goal formulated by the State Council in 2012 in the "Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"), by 2020, the production capacity of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will reach 2 million. , and according to the new energy vehicle production capacity plan disclosed by existing car companies, it has exceeded 20 million units, which is 10 times the target set in the plan. At present, the overcapacity of the domestic new energy vehicle market has emerged. The rapid expansion of the production capacity of new energy vehicles has not only driven the explosive growth of demand for power batteries and other related supporting products, but also directly led to the emergence of production capacity in the power battery industry. surplus situation.
How to resolve overcapacity
(1) Take multiple measures to effectively resolve overcapacity
The first is to strengthen the top-level design and guide the healthy and orderly development of the industry. Research and compile the medium and long-term development strategic plan for the power battery industry, further clarify the technical level and standardization of the power battery industry, and avoid overcapacity of low-end products caused by blind development.
The second is to optimize the way of government subsidies and raise the technical threshold of subsidies. From inclusive subsidies to rewarding and supporting the strong, encourage leading power battery companies to become bigger and stronger through mergers and reorganizations, extending the industrial chain, etc., to speed up the formation of the core competitiveness of the industry, while avoiding homogeneity and low-end power battery industry. development.Please check:https://www.aminobattery.com/lithium-battery/205.html
The third is to seize the major development opportunities brought about by the national "Belt and Road" initiative. Encourage leading domestic power battery companies to develop overseas markets, especially to do a good job in the follow-up research on the new energy vehicle market in countries along the "Belt and Road", choose the right market and the right time to "go out", and effectively resolve the overcapacity of the domestic power battery market crisis.
(2) Enhance the R&D strength of enterprises and enhance the competitiveness of core technologies of the industry
The first is to continue to rely on the industry-university-research alliance to develop and break through the core common technologies of power batteries. Make full use of scientific and technological innovation platforms such as the National Power Battery Innovation Center and China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance to strengthen the development and industrialization of new material systems for power batteries, rely on independent innovation to improve the patent layout of Chinese enterprises in the core technology field of power batteries, and get rid of the core Technology depends on the status quo of imports.
The second is to accelerate the introduction of incentive measures for the industrialization of power batteries, improve the performance and life of power batteries after grouping, and accelerate the development of high-performance, high-safety power battery industrialization technologies.
The third is to encourage leading domestic power battery companies to strengthen technology research and development cooperation with internationally renowned vehicle and power battery companies, absorb foreign advanced battery technology, and form a complementary business cooperation model; promote domestic leading companies to enter the supply chain and sample vehicles of international car companies Match the research and development process, actively participate in the competition in the international market, and improve the technical level and international vision of my country's power battery enterprises.
In addition, enterprises should be encouraged to promote the lightweight and standardized development of power batteries. On the premise of ensuring the safety factor of batteries, they should increase the energy density of battery modules of the same volume and directly reduce battery costs; promote big data, Internet of Things, Internet and other technologies and power The integrated development of battery and its production equipment manufacturing encourages enterprises to build a power battery intelligent production and manufacturing system to realize the upgrading of the intelligent manufacturing industry.